GB market growth slows as autumn takes hold

Date : 16 October 2018

Grocery market growth has slowed from 3.8% to 3.2% according to the latest data release from Kantar Worldpanel, pulled down mainly by weaker volume growth.

Inflation constant as volumes dip

In the 12 weeks to 7 October 2018, the market grew by 3.2%, down from 3.8% in the previous month when the period included the late June / early July heat wave and the boost from the World Cup. However growth remains comfortably above the average market  of the last five years (+1.7%), supported by inflation of 2.0% (unchanged on the previous month).

Discounters buck the downturn

While market growth has slipped, this is not the case for the leading food discounters. Aldi's growth has picked up from 13.9% to 15.1%, and Lidl from 8.3% to 10.0%. This outcome follows last week's release of Aldi UK & Ireland's 2017 results in which it reported sales had topped £10bn for the first time and that it planned to open 130 more stores by 2020, taking its total to over 900. Find out more about how to grow your business with Aldi at our Aldi Category Immersion Summit on November 6th.

Lidl is also pressing ahead with a faster rate of store openings while driving like-for-like sales. Last week it announced the opening of a number of pop-up bars to promote its popular products as the festive season draws nearer.

Strong growth from the Co-op

Aside from Ocado, Co-op was the only other multiple to gain market share. Its growth of +7.0% was driven by step up in footfall. An extra 265,000 households visited a Co-op store over the last 12 weeks and its own brand offer has proved particularly popular, with shoppers buying 10% more of these ranges than this time last year.  Tickets are selling fast for our Co-op Trade Briefing on November 22nd when the leadership team will share their commercial plan and what it means for suppliers.

Asda and Morrisons lead the Big Four

Asda and Morrisons both grew sales by 2.4%. At Asda, investments in updating its private label offer drove sales while at Morrisons higher sales of brands and fewer promotions boosted its growth. Despite this Morrisons still sells more products on promotion than any other operator according to Kantar. 45% of its sales are made on some kind of deal.

Tesco's growth has slowed to 0.9% but the market leader will be cheered by the popularity of its 'Exclusively at Tesco' range which Kantar reports are now bought by one in four British shoppers. This proportion is likely to increase as Tesco begins to market the range fully now it has been fully launched.



12 weeks to 8 Oct 2017 (% share)

12 weeks to 7 Oct 2018 (% share)

Sales growth (Y-o-Y %)

Tesco 28.0 27.4 0.9
Sainsbury's 15.8 15.4 0.6
Asda 15.5 15.3 2.4
Morrisons 10.3 10.3 2.4
Aldi 6.8 7.6 15.1
Co-op 6.2 6.4 7.0
Lidl 5.2 5.6 10.0
Waitrose & Partners 5.3 5.2 0.1
Iceland 2.1 2.1 4.8
Ocado 1.1 1.2 7.5
Other multiples 1.8 1.8 7.8
Total symbols & independents 1.8 1.7 -3.7

Source: Kantar Worldpanel


IGD Food-to-Go 2018

8 November 2018, London Understand how the food-to-go market is evolving, where the opportunities lie and how industry leaders across Europe are leveraging these trends.