GB grocery market: growth picks up as seasons change

Date : 15 October 2019

No longer against the strong summer figures, the grocery market has picked up the pace in the 12 weeks to October 6th. Growth was +1.3%, from +0.5% in the previous period, according to Kantar. With inflation dropping from 1.0% to 0.8%, higher volumes drive this growth. We look at the results in more detail and the latest news from the key retailers.

Ocado remains fastest growing supermarket

Despite Brexit concerns there were some very positive performances this period, particularly from Ocado, who continues to be the fastest growing supermarket at +13.3%.

Co-op also performed well, achieving its fastest growth since April, at +3.9%. Co-op continues to innovate to drive growth. In this period it launched a new app to build loyalty engagement and signed an exclusive deal with the NUS. This will see the retailer become the grocery franchise partner on NUS member locations across UK universities and colleges.

Sainsbury's resilience continues

Sainsbury’s was the only Big Four retailer to deliver higher sales, with growth of 0.6%, growing on the previous period of -0.1%. This was the fastest growth it has achieved since October 2018. In late September the retailer announced its first strategy update since it was barred from buying Asda setting out how it plans to revive sales and profit growth. Key elements include new entry price point private label brands to replace the Basics range, building its Future Brands range of new and exclusive products and upgrading its supermarket estate.

Improvements across the Big Four

Sales for Tesco, Asda and Morrisons remained down year on year, however there are signs of improvement.

For Tesco, sales follow the trend seen in its latest H1 results. Much of Tesco sales growth is now coming through Booker, which is not captured in these numbers.

It has been a busy period for the retailer. For more insight and the latest news, see here;

Retail Analysis subscribers can also visit our newly updated strategic outlook presentation, complete with updated market and channel forecasts.

Discounters' continue to take market share

The discounters' strong performance continued with Aldi and Lidl’s combined market share reaching 14%, 0.8% pp higher than this time last year. Recent developments suggest that Lidl is set to target the UK for online expansion. To find out more about the latest developments in discount checkout our October discount snapshot.

Detailed results

Retailer 12 weeks to 7th October 2018 12 weeks to 6th October 2019 Sales growth (Y-O-Y%)
Tesco 27.3% 27.0% -0.2%
Sainsbury's 15.4% 15.3% 0.6%
Asda 15.3% 15.0% -0.9%
Morrisons 10.3% 9.9% -1.8%
Aldi 7.6% 8.1% 7.3%
Co-op 6.4% 6.6% 3.9%
Lidl 5.6% 6.0% 8.2%
Waitrose 5.2% 5.1% -1.1%
Iceland 2.1% 2.1% 0.5%
Ocado 1.2% 1.4% 13.3%
Other Multiples 1.8% 1.9% 3.5%
Symbols & Independents 1.7% 1.8% 5.4%

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