China will continue to grow at a CAGR of 5.7% between 2019-24 and will overtake the US in 2022 to become the largest grocery market in the world. China alone will account for 43% of new grocery sales in Asia over the next five years. While India will grow in significance, accounting for 23% of new sales.
Regional growth in North America is driven by the US, which accounts for over 90% of the region’s food retail market. As a mature market, growth is slow and steady. The economic outlook remains mixed. While unemployment is low and household spending remains strong, business investment and exports have remained weak. The likelihood of further tariffs adds a degree of uncertainty.
Five countries – Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the UK – will account for nearly two-thirds of all new sales generated between 2019 and 2024 in Western Europe. Western Europe is set to see its total grocery market grow by a CAGR of 2.7% to 2024, with only Germany and Spain, which are set to advance by a CAGR of 2.9%, out of the top five set to grow faster than the wider region.